Graham and Dodd suggested buying when the stock was trading below the book value. These stocks would be sold when they moved up in price to trade at their fair value. In their books, Graham and Dodd found a number of these opportunities in the Great Depression but they are relatively rare today. More sophistication simply meant the math to determine the fair value became more complex.
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Over time, a discounted cash flow DCF model became the most popular way to value a stock. This model recognizes that the value of future earnings is less than the value of current earnings because dollars will probably buy less in the future.
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This assumption is being reviewed as negative interest rates become more common, but for now it is still a widely held belief. With a DCF, the estimated value of a stock can be determined to the penny, but any change in any of the assumptions will lead to a change in the estimated fair value of the stock. Different estimates explain why different analysts assign different price targets to stocks. Data services usually average all of the available estimates and report a consensus price target.
When using the PEG ratio, a ratio below 1 indicates a stock is potentially undervalued. Higher PEG ratios indicate stocks are overvalued. That value is derived from DCF models. This is fairly close to the consensus estimate and confirms the stock is undervalued. The value of the PEG ratio is its simplicity and its objectivity.enter
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